Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, First Edition

Author - Nassim Nicholas Taleb ... [Goo?] [Posters]

This Hardcover Book item from W. W. Norton & Company was reviewed on 4-Nov-2008.

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1) Hardcover Book Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, First Edition by W. W. Norton & Company. This was mostly a masturbatory essay by an author unbelievably taken with himself. The entire first third of the volume explains to the reader why the author is so smart, and why everyone else is so not smart. He embarks on a series of ad hominem attacks condemning many different people and professions as stupid, while offering no evidence outside of the fact that their trading account may have "blown up." Yes, the first third of book was "noise."

Moving onto part two, we actually get something for our $16.00: we get a basic statistical probability class reduced to laymen´s terms. Taleb is certainly not revealing knowledge previously unknown to the world, but we do get maybe 25 pages of "signal."

Taleb´s writing style is horrifically jumpy, and lacks the most basic flow techniques, and the last third of the book epitomizes this fact. Even more disappointing, Taleb fails to cleanly summarize the support for his stated hypothesis. He does, however, finally show some humility, if only in one or two sentences. Overall, just more "noise."

It appears Taleb badly needed to write this book as a means to vent and criticize. Although, I´m thinking this may have merely been a tactic to generate sales. His liberal use of hyperbole suggests he is deliberately trying to generate reactions from people and thus generate publicity for the work. An example of this is Taleb claiming that Warren Buffet is just a lucky idiot. The author provides preemptive defenses throughout the book despite the fact that he claims he puts wax in his ears while also reminding us that he has read the Odyssey. Wow, I´m impressed.

I have to agree with him on a few of his criticisms, however. I couldn´t agree more when it comes to journalists and financial commentators, and most of all, people who consistenly incorrectly predict market movements on CNBC.

I found it very curious that Taleb systematically attacks the methods of traders in general, but does not let us in on what he does as a trader to maintain long term success. The only shred of evidence we get, is that Taleb does not write options. Okay, so we know what he doesn´t do. As someone who trades options, and also does not write options, I would have liked a little elaboration on this topic. As a matter of fact, we don´t get any real world applications of how to use the profound knowledge Taleb has bestowed upon us.

Overall, had Taleb employed the services of a professional author who could have organized the endless thoughts and perspectives of Taleb, he could have sold over a million copies, instead of just 260,000. Unfortunately, readers of this book have to endure what is really an autobiography of sorts, informing us of how "deep" the author is. He informs us that he works out at least twice in the book, he constantly brags about his knowledge of literature and philosophy, and let´s us know that he travels Europe extensively (by leisurely train of course, because apparently flying is for white trash).

Anyways, the guy has a handful of good points. I just wish the book had some more content. I would have never read the book had I known it was going to be 250 pages of self indulgence written by an author who couldn´t be more impressed with himself.
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2) Hardcover Book Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, First Edition by W. W. Norton & Company. A great book. Read this, then follow up with the BLACK SWAN. I am more inclined to recommend this book for people who are self employed or investors. [.............]¤

3) Hardcover Book Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, First Edition by W. W. Norton & Company. The book sounds like it will give you some insight into the markets or the ramdomness of it. It builds on that expectation but does not deliver it slowly turns into a boring mumbuling of anecdotes. I did not finish the book and left it half way.¤

4) Hardcover Book Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, First Edition by W. W. Norton & Company. Interesting. Annoying. Self-referential. Insulting. Exasperating. Ultimately, intriguing. Taleb is smart, but an autodidact and quite full of himself. (After he lobs his tenth purely gratuitous insult, he is no longer cute -- he is merely sociopathic.) He gets a lot right, but he also plays fast and loose with schools of thought in which his understanding is strictly superficial. (And as with many autodidacts, he has trouble identifying which areas these might be -- making humility the mark of the really smart ones.) Like Descartes, whom he loathes, he is a rich guy who has the time and the means to ruminate with a wide swath of other intellectuals. This breadth offers bridges from ideas with which the reader is familiar into new and intriguing places. And on the pragmatic side, the reader can ask himself just what this guy does that might have saved us from loosing our collective shirts in the market.¤

5) Hardcover Book Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, First Edition by W. W. Norton & Company. This book is great and should be a compulsory reading for everyone at college. Lots of people do not realize how much chances and coincidences play roles in our lives. This book is about learning to appreciate the vast number of variables in common life which are not controlled by anyone.¤

6) Hardcover Book Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, First Edition by W. W. Norton & Company. This is a book about luck. More specifically, it is a book about how we perceive luck, twist it around and regard it as intention or purpose. What better setting than the world of trading to invesdtigate the subject? How often has the brilliant trader, who seems to the outside world to have been granted the gift of second sight in the implementation of his strategies, been suddenly wiped out by an unexpected shift in the markets? The book may have its roots firmly in the financial arena, but it also incorporates and explains the effects and repercussions of randomness in many varied fields - ranging from philosophy to literature and science - to create an insight into how randomness cannot be conquered, but can be embraced.¤

7) Hardcover Book Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, First Edition by W. W. Norton & Company. If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren´t there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb´s ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here´s an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards¤

Page Updated: Robert N. Goolsby, 2-Dec-2008, 15879907179781587990717, 590-590-770-390-900-151-171-8

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